This paper asks whether the U.S. Electoral College (EC) produces unusually close, disputable presidential outcomes and reports a quantitative assessment using existing empirical election models. The authors apply novel combinations of empirical election models drawn from several sources to estimate the probability of “close” outcomes and to compare those probabilities under the EC versus plausible popular‑vote alternatives. Their central contribution is an explicit claim—based on these model applications—that the EC both generates and increases the likelihood of razor‑thin margins.
novel applications of empirical election models Electoral College causes razor‑thin margins probability of close outcomes
Data and methods
The authors use empirical election models from several sources and combine them in new ways to estimate the chance of close outcomes in U.S. presidential races. The abstract describes model‑based counterfactual comparisons between the Electoral College and “plausibly comparable” popular‑vote systems. The paper’s approach is described at a high level only in the abstract; specific datasets, model forms and estimation choices are not detailed there.
Main findings
Using these model applications, the authors report that razor‑thin margins are very likely under the Electoral College and that this closeness is attributable to the EC: they find it would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular‑vote system. They also state the tendency of the EC to generate close elections appears both in recent elections and throughout U.S. presidential voting history.
- Razor‑thin margins are reported as very likely under the Electoral College according to the model comparisons.
- The authors assert the observed closeness is caused by the EC and would not arise under comparable popular‑vote systems.
