Campaigning matters—big time—in American politics.
Data & Methods: Leveraging inside campaign info and analyzing media markets across state boundaries, this study quantifies the aggregate impact of a full presidential campaign.
Key Findings: The 2012 campaigns increased turnout in targeted states by roughly 7-8 percentage points on average—significantly larger than previously thought.
Why It Matters? This finding underscores ground campaigning's substantial role, despite each contact having only a modest individual effect. Contrary to expectations of diminishing returns, voter contacts consistently produce large overall effects throughout the campaign.
