Understanding Violent Contagion
This study investigates whether anti-government violence exhibits spatial dependence across state boundaries. It specifically asks how much cross-national diffusion occurs and examines the role of information in this process.
Communication Technology: The Missing Link
The article argues that while communication technology provides actors with awareness of conflicts elsewhere, its impact on emulation has been previously overlooked due to a focus on large-scale conflicts like civil wars.
New Methodology
It introduces an innovative spatial connectivity matrix incorporating both geographic contiguity and access to modern communication technologies as key variables.
Results in Africa (2000-2011)
Analyzing all anti-government violence incidents across 44 African countries during this period, the research finds support for its argument that information dissemination plays a crucial role in cross-border violent emulation.
Key Findings & Implications
- Violence transmission isn't just physical proximity-based but significantly influenced by communication access.
- Emulation requires awareness; increased info channels enhance contagion potential even across borders.
- This nuanced understanding offers new insights for conflict prevention policy.
