This study compares the partisan preferences of regular versus marginal U.S. voters by analyzing how exogenous factors—weather, election timing—affect voter turnout.
Marginal Voters vs Regular Voters
- Over 20 percentage points more supportive of Democrats than regular voters.
- Differences in partisan leanings influence overall election outcomes significantly.
This Means That:
- Election results don't always reflect the full citizenry's preferences.
- Marginal citizens, who may not vote due to exogenous factors, have systematically different political views than those who participate.
The article introduces a novel method for future research investigating voter behavior across diverse contexts.
