Regular vs. marginal voters reveal deep Democratic-Republican divide?

This study compares the partisan preferences of regular versus marginal U.S. voters by analyzing how exogenous factors—weather, election timing—affect voter turnout.

Marginal Voters vs Regular Voters

• Over 20 percentage points more supportive of Democrats than regular voters.
• Differences in partisan leanings influence overall election outcomes significantly.

This Means That:

• Election results don't always reflect the full citizenry's preferences.
• Marginal citizens, who may not vote due to exogenous factors, have systematically different political views than those who participate.

The article introduces a novel method for future research investigating voter behavior across diverse contexts.