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Unemployment Milestones Shape Media Coverage; Governors' Elections Show Asymmetric Impact

Insights from the Field
left-digit bias
milestone effects
media coverage
U.S. governors
Voting and Elections
AJPS
2 R files
10 Stata files
70 Datasets
5 PDF
1 Text
9 Other
Dataverse
Media Influence on Vote Choices: Unemployment News and Incumbents' Electoral Prospects was authored by Marcel Garz and Gregory Martin. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2021.

News coverage of unemployment changes dramatically when figures cross round numbers due to left-digit bias.

Data & Methods:

We exploited the discontinuity in media attention at milestone unemployment levels, using data from U.S. governor elections.

Key Findings:

Incumbents' vote margins shift significantly—twofold as much negatively affected by bad milestones compared to positive gains.

Mechanism & Implications:

This asymmetry suggests that media focus on specific thresholds disproportionately influences voter perception and behavior.

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American Journal of Political Science
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