Expert Surveys & Measurement Challenges
Political scientists frequently employ expert surveys to uncover the intrinsic traits of political entities. However, experts often disagree due to varying levels of information and analytical capability.
Proposed Solutions for Better Assessment
This article addresses how to effectively handle this uncertainty:
- Assessing experts' predictive abilities (how well they judge latent positions)
- Developing robust methods to combine their diverse responses
Case Study: EU Integration & Party Politics Survey
The authors analyze prominent expert survey data from the literature focusing on party politics and European Union integration. This real-world application highlights practical consequences of different aggregation approaches.
Monte Carlo Simulation Findings
Using simulation, we show that:
- Aggregating responses using median or modal values outperforms mean averaging in most scenarios
These methods produce more accurate aggregated estimates despite expert disagreement.
