Nationalist Primes Boost Belief in Minority Conspiracies in Pakistan

What the Authors Ask

Niloufer Siddiqui and Asfandyar Mir investigate whether nationalist sentiment makes people more likely to believe conspiracy theories that portray ethnic or religious minorities as subversive collaborators with hostile foreign powers. The paper probes whether different kinds of nationalist messaging — including appeals that emphasize a superordinate, integrated national identity — reduce or exacerbate conspiratorial attitudes toward minorities.

How the Authors Studied It

The authors use a mixed-methods design. First, a randomized survey experiment with 2,373 respondents tests how exposure to nationalist primes affects agreement with statements alleging minority collaboration with hostile states. Second, six focus groups (6–8 participants each, total N=50) provide qualitative detail on how respondents interpret nationalist appeals and conspiracy claims. The combination of an experimental design and focus-group follow-up lets the authors identify causal effects and probe the mechanisms behind those effects.

Key Findings

• Nationalist primes increase belief in statements that frame domestic minorities as collaborating with hostile foreign powers. These effects appear even when primes are designed to promote inclusion by stressing a single, shared national identity.
• Subgroup analyses, supported by focus-group discussion, indicate a plausible mechanism: nationalism raises concerns about national status, making respondents more likely to view rights-seeking minorities as threats to national standing rather than legitimate claimants.

Why This Matters

The findings show that nationalist messaging can unintentionally fuel conspiratorial suspicions about minorities, with implications for social cohesion, minority rights, and how political actors craft appeals. Even ostensibly inclusive national narratives can deepen exclusionary beliefs if they activate status anxieties.

What To Watch Next

The paper points toward further work on when and how different nationalist frames reduce versus heighten exclusionary beliefs, and on interventions that might block the slide from legitimate status concerns into conspiratorial attributions about minorities.