High Migration Turnover Lowers Voter Turnout Even Under Compulsory Voting

Why Migration Might Depress Turnout

Giuliana Pardelli and Alexander Kustov investigate why some communities record lower voter turnout even where voting is compulsory. They focus on “migration turnover” — the combined effect of people moving into and out of a place — and argue that both inflows and outflows raise the transaction and social costs of participation (for example, by breaking neighborhood networks and information channels), which can reduce political engagement at the community level.

How the Study Works

The authors assemble a new panel dataset that links census information with administrative voting records for over 5,000 Brazilian municipalities, and complement this with individual-level survey data. The design exploits variation in local migratory turnover across time, multiple levels of aggregation, and alternative variable definitions to test whether areas with higher population churn show systematically different turnout patterns.

Key Methods and Tests

• Municipal-level panel analysis using linked census and voting records across several time frames.
• Individual-level analyses from survey data to check whether migrants and long-term residents respond differently.
• Robustness checks across aggregation levels and variable definitions to rule out measurement artifacts.
• Additional tests probing mechanisms, with a focus on social costs (weakened networks, reduced mobilization).

Main Findings

Across specifications, Pardelli and Kustov identify a robust negative association between local migratory turnover and voter turnout: municipalities experiencing more in- and out-migration tend to have lower participation rates. Individual-level results support the municipal patterns, and mechanism tests point to social costs — not only logistical hurdles — as an important pathway that helps explain the lower turnout in high-turnover communities.

Implications for Representation and Policy

The findings suggest that population mobility has broader consequences for democratic participation and representation, even where compulsory voting formalizes turnout expectations. Policymakers and election administrators should consider how high-turnover areas might need targeted outreach or institutional adjustments to sustain electoral engagement.