Fiscal Rules Don't Depress Turnout: New Evidence Challenges Policy Confinement Theories

Theoretical work suggests that government policy constraints, including economic factors, may lower electoral turnout. However, this paper examines whether specific fiscal rules—limits on government spending and revenue—have a depressing effect.

Using parliamentary data from democratic countries in a large panel study, we find little to no robust evidence supporting the idea that fiscal rules significantly reduce overall turnout.

Further analysis of European individual-level survey data reveals that these constraints also do not meaningfully affect inequalities in turnout between income groups.

To strengthen causal claims, we employ difference-in-discontinuity methods on Italian municipal election records. This approach confirms our findings are likely causally identified rather than just correlational.