Theoretical work suggests that government policy constraints, including economic factors, may lower electoral turnout. However, this paper examines whether specific fiscal rules—limits on government spending and revenue—have a depressing effect.
Using parliamentary data from democratic countries in a large panel study, we find little to no robust evidence supporting the idea that fiscal rules significantly reduce overall turnout.
Further analysis of European individual-level survey data reveals that these constraints also do not meaningfully affect inequalities in turnout between income groups.
To strengthen causal claims, we employ difference-in-discontinuity methods on Italian municipal election records. This approach confirms our findings are likely causally identified rather than just correlational.
