Politicians Misread Voters on Climate—And Fixing Beliefs Didn't Spur Action

📊 Voter and Politician Surveys Before the 2024 Election

Surveys of voters and politicians in the run-up to Indonesia's 2024 election measured preferences for environmental policy and political perceptions of those preferences. Politicians were found to underestimate voter concern about environmental issues.

🧾 How the study tested belief correction

An informational experiment presented politicians with corrected information about voter preferences to assess whether misperceptions could be changed and whether changed beliefs would lead to greater support for environmental policy.

• Data sources: nationally relevant surveys of voters and surveys of politicians collected before the 2024 Indonesian election
• Intervention: an informational treatment providing politicians with accurate measures of voter concern about the environment

🔎 Key Findings from the experiment

• Politicians updated beliefs: there is evidence that the informational treatment produced learning among politicians.
• No policy shift: despite learning, politicians did not show greater support for implementing environmental policy.

💡 Why voter preferences did not translate into policy

• Large misperceptions matter: politicians appear inclined to consider action only when initial misperceptions about voter concern are particularly large.
• Elite capture: entrenched elite interests constrain politicians' ability or willingness to implement environmental protections.
• Competing voter priorities: voters often prioritize progress in other policy domains, reducing political incentives to act on climate.

⚖️ Why this matters

These results highlight multiple barriers to climate action in Indonesia: misperception, institutional and interest-based constraints, and competing voter demands. The findings imply that correcting beliefs alone may be insufficient to generate policy change without addressing elite influence and broader voter priorities.