Why Haitian Migration Raised Crime Fears But Not Crime in Chile

🧾 What the Study Looks At

Since 2010, rapid rises in migration have prompted frequent claims that newcomers cause more crime. This study asks whether sudden, large local inflows of migrants change people’s concern about crime and whether those concerns reflect changes in actual crime rates.

🛠 How Migration and Crime Were Measured

• Uses administrative and survey data from Chile, which experienced a historic influx of migrants including many from Haiti.
• Exploits local variation in rapid Haitian migration as an immigration shock at the municipal level.
• Employs a dynamic difference-in-differences research design to estimate how these shocks affect crime perceptions and recorded crime over time.

📈 Key Findings

• A rapid local increase in Haitian migrants is associated with a rise in residents’ concerns about crime.
• No evidence was found that these immigration shocks changed actual crime rates in affected areas.
• In light of prior research documenting racial discrimination against Haitians in Chile, results are consistent with the interpretation that prejudice and negative stereotypes about nonwhite newcomers drive misconceptions about crime.

⚖️ Why It Matters

The findings show a disconnect between perception and reality: demographic change can fuel fear without altering objective risk. This has implications for public debate, media coverage, and policy responses to migration, as well as broader research on how racial prejudice shapes threat perceptions.