Democracy depends on election losers accepting defeat to enable peaceful transitions of power. This study asks how losing an election shapes candidates' views about whether contests are fair.
🔎 What Was Studied and Where
- Survey responses from hundreds of candidates in a country-wide election in Denmark — widely regarded as one of the most robust democracies in the world.
- Outcome of interest: a 5-point electoral fairness index measuring candidates' concerns about the fairness of the election.
📊 How Causal Effects Were Identified
- A regression discontinuity design exploited close election margins to compare nearly identical candidates who just won a seat to those who just lost, isolating the causal effect of losing on perceptions of fairness.
📈 Key Findings
- Candidates who failed to win a seat are more concerned about electoral fairness than election winners.
- The effect of losing is 0.46 points on the 5-point electoral fairness index (95% CI: 0.10, 0.82), equivalent to about 0.6 standard deviations.
💡 Why This Matters
- The results suggest a paradox: elections, the core democratic mechanism meant to legitimize rule, can increase discontent among those who should be democracy’s strongest advocates.
- Implications touch on democratic stability and the importance of addressing losers' perceptions to preserve confidence in electoral institutions.
