Emigration—both internal and international—shapes electoral politics in two complementary ways: it changes who remains to vote and it alters the preferences of those left behind.
🔎 Central Argument
Emigration is proposed as a major, and often overlooked, driver of populist radical right (PRR) support. The departure of citizens affects elections by (1) altering electorate composition and (2) producing material and psychological changes among stayers that raise susceptibility to populist appeals.
📊 Evidence From Subnational Europe
- Uses subnational comparisons across Europe to link migration patterns with voting outcomes.
- Finds a positive correlation between PRR vote shares and net-migration loss at the subnational level.
🧭 Precinct-Level Panel Evidence From Sweden
- Employs a fine-grained panel analysis of voting precincts in Sweden to track change over time.
- Shows that the departure of citizens raises PRR vote shares in places experiencing emigration.
- Identifies the Social Democrats as the principal electoral losers associated with emigration.
🗣️ Interviews and Press Analysis on Why Emigration Matters
- Draws on elite interviews and newspaper analyses to unpack causal mechanisms.
- Documents how emigration produces both material grievances (e.g., labor-market and fiscal effects) and psychological grievances (e.g., frustration, decline narratives).
- Shows that populist actors capitalize on these grievances while established parties fail to address them effectively.
⚖️ Why This Changes How Migration and Populism Are Understood
Emigration and the frustrations it generates emerge as important sources of populist success. Incorporating out-migration—alongside immigration—provides a fuller account of voters' shifting preferences and of the political opportunities exploited by radical-right parties.
