Crime Is Shaped by Offender–Victim Interaction
🧠Using Chile's transit reform and detailed administrative records
This study analyzes robbery as a function of the interaction between offenders and victims, focusing on bus driver robberies—a crime common in cities worldwide. The research exploits the timing of a Chilean public transportation reform and uses detailed administrative data to identify how changes in victim incentives and fare-collection technology affect criminal behavior.
🔎 What the evidence shows
- Victim incentives matter: variation in victims' propensity to resist attacks alters both the level (how often robberies occur) and the nature (how robberies are carried out) of criminal activity.
- Cash matters: the implementation of a technological innovation that eliminated cash transactions on buses is followed by a large decline in robberies.
- The combined patterns indicate a strong relationship between victim incentives, the presence of cash, and crime outcomes.
📌 Why it matters
These findings highlight that modest changes in victim incentives and in the availability of cash can meaningfully reshape criminal opportunities and tactics. The results have direct relevance for urban crime prevention and transportation policy in cities where bus robberies remain common.
