The subprime mortgage crisis created widespread economic distress at home foreclosures across the United States.
Using nationwide deed records, this study investigates how foreclosures affected voting behavior and turnout.
Data & Methods:
Deed-level foreclosure data linked to individual voter files enabled county-level analysis through difference-in-differences models.
Key Findings:
* Contrary to expectations, counties with high foreclosure rates showed no significant shift in support for the incumbent president.
* Individuals who experienced foreclosures were less likely to vote overall.
* However, these economically-distressed areas did show higher support for Trump among voters in 2016.
Why It Matters:
The findings suggest voter responses to local economic crises are complex and often not captured by simple punitive or rewarding effects. Economic distress didn't uniformly change voting patterns across the nation.
