Minority Ethnic Groups Reduce Voting in Ghana: A Geographical Intimidation Effect

This paper asks why ethnic voting varies across localities and proposes a theory that local ethnic geography increases ethnic voting where minority-group voters fear intimidation from majority-group neighbors. The authors test this mechanism using Afrobarometer survey data for Ghana, combined with geocoded survey locations and demographic data, and compare intimidation beliefs against an alternative mechanism based on local public goods provision.

Key measurement: voters’ reported fear of intimidation Data sources: Afrobarometer rounds 3–4 and Ghana DHS Geocoded analysis of local ethnic composition

Data and methods

The analysis uses respondents from round 4 of the Afrobarometer in Ghana to measure whether voters believe they are likely to face intimidation during electoral campaigns; the authors also draw on geocoded data from rounds three and four of Afrobarometer and on the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey for contextual measures. The paper frames a local intimidation mechanism as distinct from distributional explanations such as local public goods provision and evaluates evidence consistent with that mechanism.

Main findings

Using the described survey and geocoded data, the authors report empirical evidence consistent with their claim that local ethnic geography affects ethnic voting through minority voters’ fear of intimidation by majority neighbors. They also report finding no evidence that local public goods provision provides an alternative explanation in their analyses.

• The primary dependent measure is respondents’ belief that they are likely to face intimidation during campaigns.
• The study compares intimidation-based expectations against local public goods as competing mechanisms.