📰 What This Paper Asks
Prior research on how negative news affects voter turnout has produced mixed results. This study tests whether exposure to negative media coverage changes citizens' propensity to vote, and whether that effect differs between first-order (national) and second-order (European Parliament) elections.
📊 How Italy Was Measured
- Case study: Italy, chosen for its mix of electoral and media features that suit the question.
- Elections studied: 2018 Italian general election (first-order) and 2019 European Parliament election in Italy (second-order).
- Media negativity measurement: human content analysis of press and television coverage during the seven weeks before each election (ITEM datasets for 2018 and 2019).
- Opinion data: 2018 ITANES survey and 2019 ITANES–University of Milan survey.
🔎 What Was Tested
- Interaction between two dimensions: media negativity (press and TV) and election type (first- vs. second-order).
- Individual-level exposure to negative coverage and its association with turnout, with attention to how effects operate through changes in voter indecision.
📈 Key Findings
- Exposure to negative media coverage is associated with higher turnout.
- The turnout increase occurs mainly because negative coverage reduces indecision among voters (i.e., fewer undecided respondents).
- This pattern is consistent across both first-order (2018 general) and second-order (2019 European Parliament) elections.
⚖️ Why It Matters
- Resolves part of the mixed prior literature by showing a mechanism—reduced indecision—through which negativity can raise participation.
- Highlights the role of both press and television negativity across different electoral contexts, with practical implications for understanding media effects on democratic participation.
