In the early 21st-century contest for influence in Africa, this study asks whether foreign aid translates into soft power: do Chinese and U.S. aid flows generate public affinity for donors and their values?
🧾 What Data Were Used
- Afrobarometer public-opinion surveys across thirty-eight African countries
- AidData project records
- Aid Information Management Systems maintained by African finance and planning ministries
🔎 How Causal Effects Were Identified
- A spatial difference-in-differences design was employed to isolate the causal effects of Chinese and U.S. aid on recipients’ attitudes, taking advantage of variation in aid exposure across place and time.
📈 Key Findings
- Chinese aid does not increase beneficiaries’ support for China and may instead reduce it.
- U.S. aid increases support for the United States and strengthens recipients’ commitment to liberal democratic values, exemplified by greater belief in the importance of elections.
- Chinese aid does not appear to weaken commitment to liberal democratic values and may even strengthen that commitment in some cases.
- Unexpectedly, Chinese aid is associated with increased support for the UK, France, and other former colonial powers.
🌍 Why It Matters
- Results clarify when and how competing aid regimes generate soft power and under what conditions aid facilitates the transmission of political principles and ideals. The contrasting effects of Chinese and U.S. aid speak directly to debates about great power competition in Africa and the political impacts of development finance.
