This paper asks whether parties in power can systematically win a slender majority of seats in close legislative elections — a pattern the authors call “precise control.” Using U.S. state assembly elections, the study tests for discontinuities at the 50% seat-share cutoff in outcomes that should be smooth if there is no deliberate manipulation: the density of seats won and which party previously held a majority. The central contribution is evidence that precise control exists, but primarily in high-stakes state elections that determine control over congressional redistricting, suggesting it is a strategic option used when stakes are large rather than a universal feature of state contests.
Key measurement: discontinuities at the 50% seat-share cutoff. Scope: U.S. state assembly elections. Qualified claim: precise control concentrated in redistricting-stakes contests.
