Political parties governing during closely contested legislative elections may strategically time their campaigns to maximize gains. This study examines whether these parties can systematically win majority seats despite electoral closeness.

### Research Question

How do political parties in power perform when facing close legislative elections?

### Methodology & Findings

Using comprehensive data from US state assemblies over multiple election cycles, we analyze patterns of seat wins across diverse scenarios. The analysis reveals that ruling parties demonstrate a consistent ability to convert closely contested districts into majority seats.

### Key Insights

• Legislative elections can be strategically manipulated by governing parties even when statistically competitive

• Campaign timing and resource allocation play crucial roles in these outcomes

• These findings challenge conventional assumptions about close electoral competition