Shifting the Topic, Not the Blame: How Incumbents Survive Economic Crisis in Turkey

When economic downturns threaten popularity, electoral autocrats can use propaganda to either deflect blame onto other actors or steer public attention away from the economy. Evidence is limited on which strategy actually changes citizens’ views.

🔎 Study Design: Population Survey Experiment During Turkey's Economic Crisis

This study leverages the recent economic crisis in Turkey and implements a population-based survey experiment that mimicked incumbent communication strategies used in electoral authoritarian settings. The experimental treatments reproduced two common tactics:

• framing messages that shift blame for economic problems onto external or domestic actors
• reframing the political agenda by highlighting non-economic issues that favor the incumbent

🧪 Key Results

• Blame-shifting failed to produce the intended effects for large segments of the electorate; redirecting responsibility did not reliably improve incumbent evaluations.
• Agenda-setting—moving public attention away from the economy to issue areas more favorable to the incumbent—proved more effective at shoring up popular support.

💡 Why It Matters

These findings clarify which communication tools help sustain electoral authoritarianism. Specifically, controlling the agenda appears to be a more successful strategy than attempting to transfer blame during economic crises, improving understanding of the mechanisms that allow incumbents to maintain support under electoral authoritarian rule.