Contrary to common belief, international election observation can sometimes increase violence rather than prevent it. This study examines how observer criticism influences post-election outcomes.
New Findings: Using data from thirty-eight sub-Saharan African countries since 1990, the research finds that elections condemned internationally are significantly more likely to turn violent afterward.
How It Works: When reputable observers criticize an election's credibility, they give legitimizing power to electoral losers, emboldening them to challenge the results. This criticism becomes a focal point for mobilization against perceived illegitimate outcomes.
Broader Context: The findings highlight that international pressure and monitoring need more nuanced understanding of their effects on fragile democracies in Africa.
