International negotiations rely on secrecy, but leaks have become increasingly common. This study examines whether these unauthorized disclosures are primarily defensive or offensive—aimed at limiting or influencing commitments.
Data & Methods: Analyzing 120 trade negotiation leaks (2006-2015), the research finds that EU political parties' stance on economic liberalization correlates strongly with leak frequency. Using manifesto data, it tracks shifting ideological positions in these parties.
Key Findings: Leaks are disproportionately defensive and strategically timed around new legal agreements. A specific case study (Canada-EU negotiations) reveals leaked texts attract significantly more negative media coverage than official releases.
Why It Matters: This demonstrates how political actors leverage information leaks to shape domestic discourse, potentially altering negotiation dynamics through public mobilization.
