Does Brexit Spark Voter Contagion? New Research on Withdrawal Effects

New research explores how voter-endorsed withdrawals from international institutions like Brexit influence public opinion abroad. Using survey data from 58,959 EU-27 Europeans and 2,241 Swiss voters collected during key political moments, the analysis finds both encouragement and deterrence effects.

Survey Data:

• Original survey: EU-27 citizens (6 waves)
• Additional survey: Swiss voters (2 waves) around Brexit extension vote

The findings reveal complex voter responses:

• Voters with positive views of withdrawal are more likely to support it elsewhere
• Negative experiences tend to deter similar actions abroad
• Effects depend on information access and attention levels
• Motivated reasoning plays a significant role in shaping opinions