Trusting Institutions Builds Social Trust, Not Vice Versa

Why This Question Matters. Trust in state institutions and trust between citizens are central to social cohesion, compliance, and democratic legitimacy. Scholars have long observed a correlation between institutional trust and social trust, but cross-sectional studies leave open whether institutions shape interpersonal trust, whether social trust shapes institutional trust, or whether both reflect stable individual dispositions.

What Sønderskov and Dinesen Studied. Using two Danish panel surveys that track the same individuals at multiple points over periods of up to 18 years, Kim Mannemar Sønderskov and Peter Thisted Dinesen test the direction of the relationship between institutional trust (trust in state institutions) and social trust (trust in other people).

How the Analysis Works.

• Individual fixed-effects models are used to net out time-invariant individual characteristics that could confound the relationship.
• Cross-lagged panel models are used to assess whether changes in one type of trust precede changes in the other over time.

Key Findings.

• The evidence strongly supports a causal effect from trust in state institutions to social trust: increases in institutional trust predict subsequent increases in interpersonal trust.
• Evidence for the reverse pathway—social trust driving later institutional trust—is limited in these data.

What This Implies. If institutional trust causally bolsters social trust, efforts to strengthen public institutions (for example, by improving transparency, responsiveness, or performance) could have broader benefits for social cohesion. The results are based on Danish panel data, so testing whether the same causal pattern holds in other political and institutional contexts is an important next step.