Moderate Voters Weigh Ideology Less Than Liberals and Conservatives

Why Do Some Voters Ignore Ideology?

James Adams, Erik Engstrom, Danielle Martin, Jon Rogowski, Boris Shor, and Walter Stone ask whether voters across the ideological spectrum use the same decision rules when evaluating candidates. The authors test the common assumption in voting models that all voters treat candidate ideology equally, probing whether centrists (moderates) respond differently to candidates' policy positions than liberals or conservatives.

How the Study Was Done

The paper analyzes survey responses from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Using a variety of model specifications and alternative ways of measuring both voter ideology and candidate positions, the authors compare how strongly voters at different points on the ideological scale link candidate ideology to vote choice.

• Data source: 2010 CCES survey data on voters’ self-placement, assessments of candidate positions, and vote choice.
• Approach: Multiple modeling strategies and measurement alternatives to test robustness of the results across specifications.

What They Found

The authors report consistent evidence across models that ideological commitment conditions voters’ responsiveness to candidate positions. Key findings include:

• Liberal and conservative voters are substantially more likely to let candidate ideology shape their vote choice than voters who place themselves near the center.
• Moderate voters show markedly weaker ties between perceived candidate ideology and vote choice, suggesting they use different decision rules than partisans.
• These differences hold across a range of operationalizations and model checks, pointing to a robust qualitative distinction between centrists and ideologically identified voters.

Implications for Campaigns and Representation

If moderates systematically weigh ideology less than liberals and conservatives, candidates and parties may need distinct strategies to attract centrist support—emphasizing non-ideological cues, personal attributes, or local issues rather than pure left–right positioning. The finding also matters for representation: aggregated policy outcomes and the incentives facing officeholders depend on whether a meaningful segment of the electorate evaluates candidates on dimensions other than ideology.