The 2020 U.S. Presidential election saw a surprising outcome despite predictions from expert forecasters.
The Question: How do political issues influence the dynamics of presidential elections?
Our analysis examines this by comparing voter issue preferences with campaign messaging strategies across party lines, challenging standard models that emphasize partisanship alone.
What We Found: Voters' reactions to candidate positions on key issues were more nuanced than previously recognized. For instance, climate change skepticism correlated strongly with support for populist rhetoric regardless of party affiliation.
This suggests a complex relationship between voter concerns and leader selection beyond simple partisan alignment.
| Of Issues and Leaders: Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election was authored by Andreas Graefe. It was published by Cambridge in PS in 2021. |
