Electoral Uncertainty Pushes EU Legislators Toward National Party Priorities

Legislators represent multiple principals (national parties vs. European groups). How do they balance competing demands? This article argues that electoral uncertainty forces them to prioritize whichever principal is most influential for their re-election chances. Using roll-call data from the second through sixth European Parliaments (1984-2009) and measuring electoral uncertainty via volatility, we demonstrate a clear trend: periods of higher volatility corresponded with decreased legislative group cohesion.