Environmental policy stringency in nine European countries (1990-2012) hinges on green parties' expected inclusion probabilities, not polling data for governing parties. Changes in these probability forecasts significantly predict shifts in environmental policies of sitting governments. This finding underscores that parties outside government can exert substantial influence through their perceived coalition potential.
| Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: an Application to the Environment was authored by Mark A. Kayser and Jochen Rehmert. It was published by Wiley in LSQ in 2021. |
