Study Significance
The paper tests whether federal transfers of surplus military equipment to local law-enforcement agencies (the 1033 program) are associated with greater violent outcomes by police, addressing a central policy debate about the public-safety consequences of militarized policing.
Outcome Measurement and Data
The authors use the amount of equipment transferred through the Department of Defense 1033 program as the key independent variable and three dependent variables meant to capture police violence: the number of civilian casualties, the change in the number of civilian casualties, and the number of dogs killed by police.
Comparisons Across Jurisdictions
The study exploits cross-jurisdictional variation in the amount of 1033 equipment transferred—comparing LEAs that received different quantities of surplus military gear—to estimate associations with the violence-related outcomes.
Analysis and Estimation
- The study exploits cross-jurisdictional variation in 1033 transfers and estimates a series of regression models to probe associations between transfers and violent outcomes. - Three dependent variables are used to capture police violence: the number of civilian casualties, the change in the number of civilian casualties, and the number of dogs killed by police.
Main Findings
Across modeled specifications, the authors find a positive and statistically significant relationship between 1033 transfers and fatalities from officer-involved shootings.
Interpretation and Policy Relevance
The observed association speaks to debates about whether federal programs that supply military equipment to local police have unintended consequences for public safety and supports consideration of oversight, restrictions, or alternatives to such transfers.
