The 2016 election results were viewed as anomalous, particularly the flipping of counties and shifts in low-education voter turnout.
Context: While numerous county flips occurred in 2016, this wasn't unusually high compared to previous elections—even in key Midwestern states.
Contrast: The education divide between parties was unprecedented; white voters with less education leaned heavily Republican for the first time since comprehensive data began tracking.
Analysis: Using counterfactual simulations, the study assesses whether these factors were pivotal. If flipping counties hadn't changed their vote, Clinton would have narrowly won the popular contest by 3 votes—a statistical anomaly that wouldn't have occurred under normal circumstances.
| How Unusual Was 2016? Flipping Counties, Flipping Voters, and the Education-Party Correlation Since 1952 was authored by Michael Sances. It was published by Cambridge in POP in 2019. |
