How does a vulnerable state near civil wars avoid conflict contagion? Jordan, despite its risks, shows remarkably few jihadist attacks.
Context & Risk Factors:
- Located adjacent to Syria and Iraq where jihadists operate freely
- Faces economic weakness exacerbated by refugee influxes
- Hosts hundreds—if not thousands—of jihadists sympathetic to extremist groups
- Governed by a regime labeled 'traitors' by jihadists due to perceived alliances with enemies of Islam
The Puzzle:
Our research tests three hypotheses for the low level of jihadist spillover into Jordan.
Key Finding: Calibrated Repression:
We find this strategy, which we call "calibrated repression," is most significant. The policy involves:
- Repression & Co-optation: Selectively repressing IS-linked terrorist cells while co-opting other domestic jihadist elements when advantageous.
- Measured Force Use: Restraining violence against less urgent threats to maintain stability.
Significance:
This study offers crucial insights into counter-terrorism strategies and explains how states in high-risk environments can mitigate conflict spillover.
