This article examines survey data from the 2016 U.S. election, comparing it with prior election surveys.
The authors challenge four common claims about white working-class voters:
- Most Trump voters were white working class
- The majority of white working class supported Trump
- Unusually large numbers switched from Obama to Trump
- White working class votes were pivotal in swing states
They find that three of these assertions lack empirical support, while the fourth requires contextual clarification.
The paper highlights a long-term trend: rising Republican support among white working-class voters predating 2016. Without attention to this gradual shift,
Trump's appeal appears more unique than it actually was.
