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Presidents Get Rewarded Despite Voters' Deficit Claims

Regression Discontinuityfederal spendingUnited States electionsco-partisan membersAmerican Politics@APSR2 Stata filesDataverse
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Does increased federal spending translate into election votes? A county-level study from 1988 to 2008 reveals voters reward presidents for local funding, especially in battleground states. This finding challenges previous null results focused on Congress.

Funding Impact: Federal grants act as an electoral currency influenced by partisan responsibility and recipient characteristics.

Specifically:

  • Spends help incumbents gain support
  • Effect stronger in competitive states
  • Value depends on Congressional alignment (co-partisan members)

Voter Ideology Matters:

  • The spending reward is more pronounced among liberal/moderate voters
  • Conservative voters show less responsiveness to federal funds

This suggests a disconnect between public deficit concerns and actual voting behavior regarding targeted government spending.

Article card for article: The Influence of Federal Spending on Presidential Elections
The Influence of Federal Spending on Presidential Elections was authored by Douglas Kriner and Andrew Reeves. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2012.
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American Political Science Review