Less Connected, More Likely to Spark Revolutions: Arab Spring Finds Mobilization Happens at Social Network Periphery

In the tumultuous Arab Spring protests from 2010-2011 across 16 Middle East and North Africa countries, people not central in communication networks often drove collective action. Using geocoded data on individual connections during this period, we built a dataset of daily protest activity.

Key Findings:

* Contrary to standard information diffusion models, individuals at the periphery of social networks were primarily responsible for changing overall levels of protest.

* There's preliminary evidence suggesting that mobilization attempts by those in the core might paradoxically lead to fewer protests.

Why It Matters:

These findings challenge conventional wisdom about who initiates large-scale mobilization. Our results suggest that suppressing information flow or targeting peripheral actors differently may significantly alter protest dynamics.