Elections Ignite Violence? Not Always - A Counterintuitive Cycle Explained

Elections are often violent, challenging the idea that democracy promotes peace. We demonstrate this conflict by showing elections increase violence near voting while decreasing it elsewhere due to strategic timing of party efforts.

Direct Election Effect

• Increases violence close to polling day as electoral contests intensify.
• This occurs because nonviolent alternatives are crowded out during election periods.

Indirect Election Effect

• Reduces violence at other times by incentivizing parties to wait for elections when their actions might influence outcomes more effectively.

The Political Violence Cycle

Elections peak violence in the short-term but may reduce overall societal violence. Crucially, without elections, political violence would be worse if the indirect effect is strong. Alternatively, effective nonviolent means could mitigate this negative impact on peace during election cycles.