New theory posits that important Islamic holidays suppress violence, contrary to assumptions about Ramadan.
📍 Research Design
Innovative parallel analysis of multiple datasets combined with qualitative evidence from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (2004-2014).
🔮 Key Findings
- Violence significantly declines on major Islamic holidays
- Reductions as high as 41% in violence during celebratory periods
- No systematic increase observed across other holidays
🧠 Why It Matters
Militant actors anticipate societal disapproval, leading to self-restraint. This finding offers fresh insights into how religious observances can influence political behavior.
