Contrarian View: Key Islamic Holidays Linked to Reduced Political Violence

Islamic calendar theoryRamadan counterfactualIraq conflict datasetAfghan violence patternsPakistani security trendsInternational Relations @APSR 5 Stata files Dataverse

New theory posits that important Islamic holidays suppress violence, contrary to assumptions about Ramadan.

📍 Research Design

Innovative parallel analysis of multiple datasets combined with qualitative evidence from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (2004-2014).

🔮 Key Findings

• Violence significantly declines on major Islamic holidays

• Reductions as high as 41% in violence during celebratory periods

• No systematic increase observed across other holidays

🧠 Why It Matters

Militant actors anticipate societal disapproval, leading to self-restraint. This finding offers fresh insights into how religious observances can influence political behavior.

Article card for article: Days of Action or Restraint? How the Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence

Days of Action or Restraint? How the Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence was authored by Michael J. Reese, Keven G. Ruby and Robert A. Pape. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2017.