Why Extreme Candidates Boost Opponent Turnout, Not Their Own: An Election Study

The debate over whether parties should target moderate voters or energize bases often overshadows another crucial factor. This study investigates the effect of candidate ideology on general election outcomes in US House races between 2006 and 2014.

➡️ Data & Methods

• Employed a regression discontinuity design for close primary races.
• Incorporated survey data and administrative records on individual voter turnout.

📊 Key Findings

• Extremist nominees, defined by campaign contribution mix:
• Harm their party's general election prospects.
• Decrease their own party base's turnout significantly.
• Increase the opponent party base's turnout even more.

💡 Why It Matters

• Extremism may be a powerful campaign strategy, but its effects are counterintuitive: it primarily backfires by energizing opponents rather than alienating moderates or insufficiently activating one's own base.
• This suggests that moderate candidates benefit from higher turnout among partisans.