Primary elections' impact on candidate positions remains unclear despite theoretical predictions.
Theoretical Dilemma:
- Equilibrium Analysis: Standard models predict convergence toward the median voter's position in primaries with complete information.
- Behavioral Game Theory: This approach anticipates divergence due to policy motivations and out-of-equilibrium beliefs among candidates.
Experimental Findings: Primary Elections & Candidate Positions
- A controlled, incentivized experiment reveals significant candidate divergence during simulated primary elections.
- Primaries do not cause substantial movement toward the median voter; average positions remain largely unchanged.
Voter Strategy in Primaries:
- Voters employ a strategy that eliminates candidates perceived as too moderate or too extreme from the general election field.
- This behavior enhances ideological purity without increasing overall candidate divergence beyond what behavioral models predict.
Implications for Research:
This analysis underscores the critical need to consider behavioral assumptions when studying electoral institutions, challenging traditional equilibrium-based predictions.
