New research using eight decades of data reveals that state public policy liberalism on economic and social issues directly predicts future change across the American states. While partisan control is a factor, this study shows responsiveness primarily occurs through incumbent officials' adaptation over time. Policy shifts are gradual processes built from incremental changes accumulated yearly.
Data & Methods: Analysis covers US state policies from 1936 to 2014 using historical policy data.
Key Findings: Liberalism in publics drives policy change, significantly faster on social issues than economic ones. Incumbents adapt incrementally without partisan turnover being the main mediator.
Why It Matters? This challenges the assumption that major policy changes require partisan victories and suggests state democracy functions more smoothly through incremental adaptation by officials.
| Policy Preferences and Policy Change: Dynamic Responsiveness in the American States, 1936-2014 was authored by Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2018. |
