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Insights from the Field

AI Detects Election Fraud: 1988 Mexico's Hidden Ballots Revealed


convolutional neural networks
mexican elections
1988 electoral fraud
ai auditing
Voting and Elections
APSR
1 R files
1 Stata files
2 datasets
1 text files
1 archives
Dataverse
The Fingerprints of Fraud: Evidence from Mexico's 1988 Election was authored by Francisco Cantu. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2019.

Was Mexico's 1988 election truly free? New analysis reveals AI-powered detection using an original database of vote tally sheets uncovered widespread fraud.

### Data & Methods ###

Researchers examined thousands of images from the 1988 presidential election tallies, applying Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to identify manipulated returns. This novel approach leveraged optical character recognition challenges posed by altered documents.

### Key Findings ###

Fraud was prevalent in about one-third of all precincts nationwide. The analysis found that tampering occurred most frequently where opposition candidates were absent and in states governed by officials with extensive grassroots election experience.

### Implications for Political Science Research ###

This groundbreaking study demonstrates how autocratic regimes historically manipulated electoral outcomes even after formal reforms. It introduces a revolutionary methodology combining historical archives and machine learning to audit election integrity, offering insights into understanding democratic backsliding.

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