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Noncitizens Shape Swedish Election Outcomes Despite Expected Selection Bias

International migrants are among the largest disenfranchised groups in modern democracies. This paper examines how giving noncitizens suffrage affected public policy, specifically education and social spending, across Swedish municipalities. The author argues that standard political competition models suggest a selection bias when measuring the impact of enfranchising noncitizens. Using unique data from Sweden's municipal-level introduction of voting rights for noncitizens, they find substantial increases in relevant government spending where noncitizens represented a significant portion of the electorate.

Data & Methods

This analysis relies on exogenous changes in Swedish municipal electorates following the introduction of noncitizen suffrage. By comparing policy outcomes before and after these changes occurred across different municipalities, the paper addresses key methodological concerns about selection bias.

Key Findings

Noncitizen enfranchement significantly influenced public policy at local levels:

  • Education spending increased substantially in municipalities with high noncitizen voter turnout
  • Social and family services budgets saw notable growth under similar conditions
American Journal of Political Science
Inclusion and Public Policy: Evidence from Sweden's Introduction of Noncitizen Suffrage was authored by KÃ¥re Vernby. It was published in AJPS in 2013. Find on Google Scholar10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00612.x
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