Beyond Democracy vs Dictatorship: Personalist Regimes Fuel Nuclear Proliferation

Many studies claim that Regime Type (democracy vs. nondemocracy) influences states' decisions to pursue nuclear weapons.

However, this paper argues for a more nuanced view by distinguishing between different types of nondemocracies:

• Leaders in highly centralized "Personalistic" dictatorships are particularly drawn to nuclear arsenals as tools against regime threats.

• These leaders face fewer internal constraints than those in other regimes (Authoritarian, Clientelist).

Through sophisticated empirical methods including various Data & Methods techniques and accounting for different aspects of proliferation timing,

the analysis demonstrates that personalist regimes are significantly more likely to pursue nuclear weapons than any other regime type.

✅ Why It Matters:

This finding shifts our understanding away from broad democratic-dictatorship contrasts toward specific political dynamics driving nuclear ambitions.