This paper examines the relationship between fluctuations in financial remittances and public approval of incumbents across Central Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The study addresses a significant gap in understanding how economic transfers influence political support by analyzing time-sensitive data from multiple countries including Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Ukraine.
Data & Methods: Using survey data combined with remittance records collected over three election cycles (2019-2022), the authors employed mixed-methods analysis. Quantitative methods include regression analyses comparing approval ratings across regions during periods of high versus low remittances.
Key Findings: Results reveal that remittances significantly boost incumbent support immediately after arrival but this effect fades over time without re-investment opportunities (this is a key finding). Countries with recent capital investment initiatives show sustained effects, indicating the importance of economic feedback loops for political outcomes.
Why It Matters: The findings highlight how temporary financial boosts can influence electoral fortunes unless accompanied by sustainable development plans. This has implications for campaign financing and economic policy during election periods.
| When the Money Stops: Fluctuations in Financial Remittances and Incumbent Approval in Central Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia was authored by Katerina Tertytchnaya, Catherine E. De Vries, Hector Solaz and David Doyle. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2021. |
