Higher Costs, More Wars: How Audience Pressures Shape International Crises

This paper estimates country-specific audience costs in a dynamic crisis escalation game, challenging previous assumptions.

New Approach Needed: Unlike prior studies relying on proxy variables like democracy measures, we directly estimate each nation's unique commitment pressures during disputes.

The Surprising Equilibrium: Counterintuitively, increased domestic audience costs drive countries toward initiating more conflicts. Why? Because the public pressure forces governments to appear firm in crises, acting as a credible commitment tool that compels adversaries to retreat.

Peace Requires Higher Costs: Despite this provocative finding, our analysis demonstrates unequivocally that larger overall audience costs correlate with fewer international wars over time.

What Drives Audience Cost Differences? We identify three key factors influencing variations in audience cost parameters:

* Free Press intensity

* Executive appointment/removal provisions (enhancing leadership stability)

* History of interstate rivalries

This nuanced understanding reveals how domestic political dynamics shape international relations and underscores the complexity behind public pressure's role.