A new study reveals how import competition tied to Chinese trade affects voting behavior in 15 Western European countries between 1988 and 2007.
📊 Data & Methods
* Analyzed official district-level election results alongside individual-voter data.
* Incorporated party ideology scores from the Comparative Manifesto Project.
* Instrumented Chinese import shocks into Europe using US-China trade data as a measure.
🔍 Key Findings
1️⃣ Stronger exposure to Chinese imports increased support for nationalist and isolationist parties.
2️⃣ It also boosted backing for radical-right political movements.
3️⃣ Voters shifted generally rightward following import competition rises.
4️⃣ Import shocks influenced voting through a sociotropic lens, meaning citizens felt the impact broadly.
💡 Why It Matters
This research provides concrete evidence linking specific trade pressures to measurable shifts in political alignment and party preferences within Western Europe.
| The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe was authored by Piero Stanig and Italo Colantone. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2018. |
