Rebel groups start small but need broad support to win. This paper shows low-income fighters must convince middle-class people to protest against the government during civil wars, which then leads governments to negotiate more often and agree to peace deals.
Context: Civil conflicts require rebel strength beyond initial core supporters.
Core Argument: Middle-class protests signal sufficient rebel power for government concessions.
Empirical Evidence: Protest frequency increases likelihood of negotiation/peace agreements. Low-income fighters initially trigger protest.*
* Data & Methods: Analysis of civil conflict data with focus on Colombia case study.
Significance: Understanding this dynamic helps explain how rebels gain bargaining power and achieve favorable outcomes.
| Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti-government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars was authored by Bahar Leventoğlu and Nils W. Metternich. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2018. |
