New Experiments Reveal Hawkdom's Surprising Domestic Edge in Foreign Policy

The adage "only Nixon could go to China" suggests hawks face fewer domestic barriers to pursuing foreign enemies' reconciliation. However, empirical evidence was mixed until now.

What We Found

• Survey experiments show hawks have a clear advantage domestically when initiating rapprochement with foreign powers.
• This advantage holds regardless of whether the resulting diplomatic efforts succeed or fail.

Why Hawkdom Works Better

Two key mechanisms appear responsible for this finding:

• Voters more readily trust hawkish leaders' conciliatory initiatives than dovish ones.
• The public often misclassifies hawks who pursue diplomacy as moderate, reducing opposition to their actions.

Implications

These findings suggest a significant role for strategic perception in international relations. They provide microfoundational support for theories that emphasize domestic political calculations alongside external threats.