How New Constitutions Boost Liberal Democracy: Elite Bargains vs. Direct Populism

This paper challenges the traditional democratic theory that only constitutions created through direct popular involvement truly solidify democracy.

Alternative Path to Democracy: We argue instead that plural elite agreements are more effective at establishing liberal democracy globally between 1900-2015.︎ Power dispersion during negotiations leads these elites to adopt protective institutions without undermining majority rule.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Effects: The study finds democratizing effects of such political bargains initially stronger when power balances remain stable—but risks diminish over time as the original agreement's terms weaken.

Methodology & Evidence: Using an original global dataset and a difference-in-differences design, this research demonstrates that elite-led constitution-writing processes better institutionalize liberal democratic protections than direct popular involvement.