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The Disclosure Dilemma: Nuclear Intelligence and International Organizations

This article explores a paradox in international organizations like the IAEA.

  • Background: Scholars traditionally view IOs as enhancing transparency to solve information problems. This paper introduces an alternative challenge where IOs must protect sensitive intelligence about nuclear proliferation.
  • New Data & Methods: Utilizing newly compiled data on intelligence disclosures and analyzing all known nuclear proliferation cases, we demonstrate states' reluctance to reveal sources due to security concerns.
  • Key Findings: Strengthening the IAEA's ability to shield intelligence led to increased sharing among member states and a reduction in undeclared nuclear facilities globally.
  • Why It Matters: This solution creates an unintended dynamic where states gain subtle leverage, while also conflicting with IOs' normative commitment to openness. Our findings reveal how information protection capabilities impact proliferation dynamics.
American Journal of Political Science
The Disclosure Dilemma: Nuclear Intelligence and International Organizations was authored by Allison Carnegie and Austin Carson. It was published in AJPS in 2019. Find on Google Scholar10.1111/ajps.12426
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