The Disclosure Dilemma: Nuclear Intelligence and International Organizations

This article explores a paradox in international organizations like the IAEA.

• Background: Scholars traditionally view IOs as enhancing transparency to solve information problems. This paper introduces an alternative challenge where IOs must protect sensitive intelligence about nuclear proliferation.

• New Data & Methods: Utilizing newly compiled data on intelligence disclosures and analyzing all known nuclear proliferation cases, we demonstrate states' reluctance to reveal sources due to security concerns.

• Key Findings: Strengthening the IAEA's ability to shield intelligence led to increased sharing among member states and a reduction in undeclared nuclear facilities globally.

• Why It Matters: This solution creates an unintended dynamic where states gain subtle leverage, while also conflicting with IOs' normative commitment to openness. Our findings reveal how information protection capabilities impact proliferation dynamics.