This article examines the surprising persistence of campaign effects through a unique natural experiment in Germany.
Background: In 2007, a right-wing conservative party fell just short of the 5% threshold for state parliament representation. The Constitutional Court ordered a revote due to potential election fraud concerns.
Campaign & Setting: A one-sided campaign focusing on law and order followed this ruling.
Key Findings:
The study reveals that this single precinct revote led to more than sixfold growth in the party's vote share. Crucially, comparing results with adjacent areas demonstrates long-lasting impacts: residents increased installation of security warning signs significantly without adopting right-wing political attitudes. They developed heightened belief about potential election fraud recurrence.
Theoretical Contribution: Drawing on habitual-voting and social-norm theories, this research highlights how a candidate's persuasive message (offering an unchallenged interpretation) can produce durable effects even when direct party preferences don't persist.
| When Do Campaign Effects Persist for Years? Evidence from a Natural Experiment was authored by Kai Jäger. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2020. |
